TENNESSEE TITANS (5-5) at HOUSTON TEXANS (4-6)
Posted on November 27, 2010
Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. EDT, Line: Houston -6.5, Total: 45.5
With Vince Young placed on injured reserve and Kerry Collins still unable to play because of a calf injury, Rusty Smith will start at QB when the Titans visit Houston on Sunday. He will not have the services of the team’s best receiver as Kenny Britt is out with a torn hamstring. This game figures to be another close one, considering the past three meetings have been decided by three points or less. And considering the Texans back-to-back, heart-breaking losses to the Jaguars (hail mary) and Jets (last minute TD), the outcome of this game will likely not be decided until the game’s final play.
StatFox take:
Smith did not play very well in his NFL debut in last week’s 19-16 overtime loss to Washington. He was 3-of-9 for 62 yards and one interception. But unlike Young, who didn’t factor WR Randy Moss in the offense, Smith targeted Moss three times after he replaced Young last week. Moss only has one catch in two games with Tennessee this season, but will likely receive some of Britt’s targets. In Britt’s last game (Week 7 vs. Eagles), he caught seven passes for 225 yards and three touchdowns. Considering the Texans have the NFL’s worst passing defense (301 YPG, 25 TD), Smith and Moss should be able to hook up a few times on Sunday. Tennessee offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger will call the plays on Sunday after postponing his chemotherapy treatments until Monday. Per usual, the Tennessee offense revolves around dynamic RB Chris Johnson, who is third in the NFL with 968 rushing yards. In two meetings with Houston last year, Johnson gained 435 total yards (348 rushing, 87 receiving) with three touchdowns.
The Texans also have a great running back in Arian Foster who leads the NFL in both rushing yards (1,004) and touchdowns (13). QB Matt Schaub is just 2-4 in six career starts versus Tennessee, averaging less than 200 passing YPG against the Titans. However, Schaub has played pretty well during Houston’s current four-game losing skid, averaging 259 passing YPG with 4 TD and 2 INT. He did suffer a minor knee injury in last week’s loss to the Jets, but he will start Sunday. WR Andre Johnson has been bothered by a high ankle sprain for the past month, but he too will be able to play. Johnson only had four catches for 32 yards last week as the Jets keyed on shutting him down. The Titans had no such luck doing that last year, as Johnson caught 14 passes for 227 yards and three scores in two games versus Tennessee in 2009.
The Titans are 6-2 SU (5-3 ATS) in the eight all-time meetings at Reliant Stadium. However, these two FoxSheets trends predict Houston will snap its losing streak at home.
Play On – Underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) – in a game involving two average teams (+/- 0.4 YPP) after 8+ games, after allowing 400 or more total yards in their previous game. (90-48 since 1983.) (65.2%, +37.2 units. Rating = 2*).
Play On – Home underdogs or pick (HOUSTON) – with an excellent offense – averaging 360 or more total yards/game. (79-44 since 1983.) (64.2%, +30.6 units. Rating = 2*).
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