Wager7 NFL
Posted on December 23, 2010
Earlier this week, we examined the games with the lowest posted totals this season and found that a vast majority of these games have ended up going over the total. Let’s take a look at the other end of the spectrum — the games with the highesttotals this season.
Through the first 15 weeks of the 2010 season, there have been 21 games with totals of 48 points or more. The over has hit in 13 of these games, with one game landing right on the total. With a record of 13-7-1, the over is connecting 65% of the time in these games.
This is a trend that has surfaced as the season has progressed. Through the first eight weeks of the season, the over was just 4-5 in these games with big totals. Since then, the over has gone 9-2, including a 6-1 mark in Weeks 12 through 15. Last weekend, Indianapolis and Jacksonville combined for 58 points to go well over the 48-point total (Indy won 34-24).
In Week 16, there are two games on the schedule that are headed for inclusion in this group.
HOUSTON TEXANS at DENVER BRONCOS (Over/Under: 48)
The Texans have participated in six games in which the over/under was 48 or higher, second only to Indianapolis with seven. The total has been surpassed in four of the six contests involving Houston, most recently in Week 13 at Philadelphia (a 34-24 loss), which featured the highest posted total of the 2010 season at 51. By contrast, the Broncos have been involved in two of these games and both have gone under, although the total in their 35-14 loss to San Diego in Week 11 fell just one point shy of the 50-point total assigned to that game.
The FoxSheets make a strong case for an offensive slugfest in the mile high city:
Houston is 9-0 OVER (+9.0 Units) after a loss by 10 or more points over the last 3 seasons. The average score was Houston 27.6, Opponent 29.7 – (Rating = 4*).
Play Over – Any team against the total (Houston) – after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games against opponent after 2 straight losses by 10 or more points. (31-8 over the last 10 seasons.) (79.5%, +22.2 units. Rating = 3*).
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS at ATLANTA FALCONS (Over/Under: 48.5)
The first meeting between these two NFC South rivals, a 27-24 home win for the Falcons, went over the 49-point total. Due to its solid defense, the rest of Atlanta’s 13 games this year have all had lower totals. The Saints have been involved in two other games with high totals, one a low-scoring affair on opening night against Minnesota (New Orleans won 14-9), the other a dramatic, high-scoring 30-27 victory over Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.
The FoxSheets are forecasting another shootout for this Monday night matchup with major playoff implications:
New Orleans is 13-3 OVER (+9.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons. The average score was New Orleans 29.8, Opponent 26.4 – (Rating = 2*).
Atlanta is 9-1 OVER (+7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season. The average score was Atlanta 29.3, Opponent 21.2 – (Rating = 3*).
Filed Under Football