NBA Basketball
Posted on January 29, 2011
Last week, we conducted a study of records coming After Straight Up Wins and Losses. In this column, we will focus on performances after AGAINST THE SPREAD wins and losses.
In our continuing momentum examination, we wanted to find out which teams consistently build upon ATS win and which teams have a greater habit of posting consecutive ATS defeats. We also compiled the Over/Under numbers to determine the teams that put in the most consistent offensive and defensive performances from night to night. This study only refers to After ATS Wins and Losses. All of the numbers here are through Thursday, Jan. 27.
SU After ATS Wins/Losses
In this section we are focusing simply on STRAIGHT UP records. These do not incorporate spreads in any way. So far this season, NBA teams are 327-318 (51%) After ATS Wins and 317-327 (49%) after ATS Losses. Seven of the NBA’s eight best SU records comprise the top seven After SU Wins records (L.A. Lakers 18-2, San Antonio 23-3, Miami 17-3, New Orleans 18-7, Boston 14-6, Orlando 14-6 and Dallas 15-7). Chicago is tied for the fourth-best NBA record (31-14), but is only 14-10 after an ATS win.
And five of the NBA’s worst SU teams comprise the bottom five SU records After ATS Wins (Sacramento 1-15, Cleveland 2-13, Toronto 4-17, New Jersey 5-17, Washington 4-12). Minnesota is the odd team out as its Win Pct. improves from 22% SU overall (second-worst in NBA) to 30% SU After ATS Wins (eighth-lowest in league).
But the numbers are considerably different for teams recovering the quickest after ATS losses. Although the Spurs and Celtics remain two of the five best teams in this category too, three others (Chicago, Denver and Atlanta) hop on this list while the Lakers (14-11), Heat (13-9), Hornets (10-9) get the boot. Chicago has won these games by an 8.9 PPG margin, which is second to Boston’s 10.8 scoring margin following an SU defeat.
Best SU Records After ATS LOSSES
Chicago 84% (16-3)
San Antonio 82% (14-3)
Boston 81% (17-4)
Denver 70% (16-7)
Atlanta 67% (16-8)
Although the league’s three worst SU teams are also the bottom trio of SU Records After ATS Losses, Memphis’ 5-12 mark in this scenario really stands out. The Grizzlies are allowing 96.8 PPG after an ATS win, but that balloons to 100.9 PPG after an ATS defeat. The Cavs and Timberwolves are a combined 8-44 in this scenario and are being outscored by 11.6 PPG and 7.9 PPG, respectively.
Worst SU Records After ATS LOSSES
Cleveland 14% (4-24)
Minnesota 17% (4-20)
Sacramento 28% (7-18)
Memphis 29% (5-12)
Washington 33% (9-18)
Since most of the good teams were good in both categories and the bad teams were bad in both categories, we took the difference of Records After Wins minus Records After Losses and found five teams that carry a difference of at least 25% in these two categories. Oklahoma City (0%), Philadelphia (0%), Cleveland (-1%) and Phoenix (-1%) are the four teams with virtually identical records after wins as after losses.
Greatest Differential: After ATS Wins minus After ATS Losses
L.A. Lakers +34% (90% after win, 56% after loss)
Memphis +34% (63% after win, 29% after loss)
Miami +26% (85% after win, 59% after loss)
Chicago -26% (58% after win, 84% after loss)
Detroit -26% (27% after win, 53% after loss) – Read more
Filed Under Basketball