Posted on February 24, 2011
It will come as no surprise that most teams currently ranked in the AP Top 25 have solid home records SU. However, not all are equally successful ATS. While some have excelled, others have performed very poorly. In total, there are 10 ranked teams that are either better than 60% or worse than 40% ATS, providing us with some solid wagering opportunities.
The following list shows the seven ranked teams that have the best home winning percentages ATS:
TEAM, HOME ATS W-L (PCT)
Purdue, 9-1 (90%)
Wisconsin, 8-3 (73%)
Texas, 8-4 (67%)
Kansas, 9-5 (64%)
Notre Dame, 7-4 (64%)
San Diego State, 7-4 (64%)
Kentucky, 5-3 (63%)
Here are the three ranked teams that have the worst home winning percentages ATS:
TEAM, HOME ATS W-L (PCT)
Florida, 3-9 (25%)
Xavier, 3-9 (25%)
Syracuse, 6-10 (38%)
We also studied how the current AP Top 25 is faring in road games ATS. Once again, there are 10 teams either above the 60% mark or below the 40% mark, with the majority falling into the above 60% category. The best ranked road teams ATS are:
TEAM, ROAD ATS W-L (PCT)
Texas, 9-2 (82%)
Vanderbilt, 8-2 (80%)
Arizona, 8-3 (73%)
Georgetown, 10-5 (67%)
Duke, 8-4 (67%)
Connecticut, 7-4 (64%)
Temple, 8-5 (62%)
Xavier, 8-5 (62%)
And the worst are:
TEAM, ROAD ATS W-L (PCT)
Villanova, 4-7 (36.4%)
Kentucky, 5-8 (38.5%)
Texas is the only team that appears on both of the “best” lists, while no team appears on both “worst” lists. Xavier is the only school that is on the “worst” home list and the “best” road list, while Kentucky is the only one to have it the other way around.
We’ve also looked for value in the BCS conferences to see which unranked teams have been able to hold their own on the road ATS, even though in most cases they are sub-.500 SU in these situations.
TEAM, ROAD ATS W-L (PCT)
Boston College, 8-4 (67%)
Tennessee, 8-4 (67%)
Auburn, 4-2 (67%)
California, 7-4 (64%)
DePaul, 7-4 (64%)
Georgia, 7-4 (64%)
Michigan, 7-4 (64%)
Virginia, 7-4 (64%)
This group of BCS schools has fared the worst on the road ATS:
TEAM, ROAD ATS W-L (PCT)
Kansas State, 2-9 (18%)
Arkansas, 2-8 (20%)
Oregon State, 2-6 (25%)
Colorado, 3-8 (27%)
Mississippi State, 3-7 (30%)
Providence, 3-7 (30%)
West Virginia, 4-9 (31%)
And finally, unranked BCS schools who are the best and worst ATS at home:
TEAM, HOME ATS W-L (PCT)
Alabama, 9-1 (90%)
Colorado, 7-3 (70%)
Virginia, 7-3 (70%)
Michigan, 8-4 (67%)
Washington, 8-4 (67%)
TEAM, HOME ATS W-L (PCT)
Baylor, 2-7 (22%)
Georgia, 3-8 (27%)
Minnesota, 4-11 (27%)
Maryland, 3-7 (30%)
Miami, 3-7 (30%)
Here are some away/home mismatches to look for this week:
Thursday:
Georgia (64% away) at Florida (25% home)
Saturday:
Texas A&M (60% away) at Baylor (22% home)
Michigan (64% away) at Minnesota (27% home)
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