Game of the Week
Posted on April 9, 2011
NEW YORK YANKEES (4-2) at BOSTON RED SOX (0-6)
First pitch: Friday, 2:05 p.m. EDT
Line: Boston -130, New York +120, Total: 10
The Red Sox, one of the majors’ two winless teams and enduring their worst start since 1945, finally head to Fenway Park for their home opener on Friday afternoon. Boston is set to begin a 10-game homestand with the first game of a three-game series against the rival New York Yankees.
With a team batting average of .181 and a team ERA of 7.13, the Red Sox come off a pair of three-game sweeps at the hands of Texas and Cleveland, during which they were outscored 38-16. Now they return home for 10 straight games against AL East foes, hoping to right the ship after a winless start not seen in Boston in 66 years.
On the mound, the Red Sox will have John Lackey (0-1, 22.09 ERA), who was blitzed to the tune of 10 hits and nine earned runs in 3.2 innings during his first start of the season against the Rangers. Lackey was 1-1 with a 3.20 ERA against the Yankees last year, but overall, managed just a 2-5 record and 5.77 ERA in starts during the day.
The Yankees hit the road for the first time this season after taking four of six games during a season-opening homestand, with all the victories being saved by veteran closer Mariano Rivera. Their past three games, all against Minnesota, were all decided by a single run, including two wins.
Phil Hughes (0-1, 11.25 ERA) takes the hill for the Yanks. Hughes has team management concerned in the early going as he has seen his velocity drop from last season. In 2010, he was 7-4 on the road, including 2-0 in Boston. However, he is 3-6 with a 5.80 ERA lifetime in April, and 1-3 with a 5.70 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox.
These two division rivals have split their season series, 9-9, in each of the past three seasons, and are matching up for the first time in 2011. I think Boston will be charged up in front of its home crowd and with Hughes possibly having a “dead” arm, the Red Sox will finally get their first win of the season. The two highly-rated FoxSheets trends also support picking Boston.
Play On – Home teams (BOSTON) – allowing 6.2 or more runs/game on the season (AL), after a one-run loss. (35-12 since 1997.) (74.5%, +25.5 units. Rating = 3*).
Play Against – Road teams (NY YANKEES) – cold hitting team – batting .200 or worse over their last 3 games against opponent starting a pitcher who was rocked for 7 or more runs last outing. (108-56 since 1997.) (65.9%, +46.1 units. Rating = 3*).
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